| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through … | November 15 | 92% | +25.5 pts | $5.7M |
| Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen | 45% | +4.8 pts | $5.3M |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 10% | −7.0 pts | $2.3M |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | Yes | 46% | +18.0 pts | $1.1M |
| US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026? | Yes | 99% | +9.9 pts | $1.1M |
| Iran leadership change by … | June 30, 2027 | 22% | −4.0 pts | $897k |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? | Nicolás Maduro | 94% | +9.9 pts | $606k |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by … | December 31 | 10% | −4.0 pts | $521k |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by … | December 31, 2026 | 40% | −3.0 pts | $496k |
| Iran full airspace closure by … | December 31 | 26% | −9.5 pts | $460k |
| Netanyahu out by … | June 30, 2027 | 69% | +32.0 pts | $399k |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by … | April 30, 2027 | 42% | +0.5 pts | $375k |
| Next leader out of power before 2027? | None before 2027 | 45% | −24.5 pts | $323k |
| Iran leader end of 2026? | Mojtaba Khamenei | 94% | +7.8 pts | $309k |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China | 88% | +5.5 pts | $276k |
| NATO x Russia military clash by … | December 31 | 12% | −1.0 pts | $267k |
| Israeli airspace closed by…? (Excluding Holiday Closures) | December 31 | 32% | 0.0 pts | $221k |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by … | December 31, 2027 | 42% | −10.0 pts | $218k |
| Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by … | March 31, 2027 | 25% | −20.0 pts | $197k |
| Who will Trump speak to by November 30? | Friedrich Merz | 94% | +45.9 pts | $193k |
| What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 10% | −3.0 pts | $157k |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by…? (2 week pause) | December 31 | 80% | +3.0 pts | $130k |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 4% | −3.1 pts | $124k |
| Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? | Yes | 16% | −1.0 pts | $120k |
| Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? | Abbas Araghchi | 36% | −4.5 pts | $118k |
| Which cities will Russia enter by December 31? | Druzkhivka | 17% | −13.0 pts | $112k |
| Russia x Ukraine peace talks by … | December 31 | 96% | +23.2 pts | $104k |
| Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? | Yes | 6% | −8.5 pts | $100k |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 4% | −4.2 pts | $98k |
| Will Russia invade another country by … | December 31, 2027 | 18% | −1.0 pts | $94k |
| Houthis capture Taiz by…? (castle) | December 31 | 21% | −18.5 pts | $92k |
| Iran coup attempt by … | December 31, 2027 | 26% | 0.0 pts | $91k |
| Who will Trump meet with by November 30? | Xi Jinping | 94% | −0.4 pts | $86k |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26% | −3.5 pts | $84k |
| Maduro Prison Time? | No prison time | 63% | +18.0 pts | $80k |
| France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3% | −4.3 pts | $79k |
| Spain General Election Winner | PP | 90% | +5.0 pts | $77k |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 8% | −1.0 pts | $74k |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by … | December 31, 2027 | 38% | −0.5 pts | $65k |
| How many Israeli elections before government formed? | 1 | 67% | +13.5 pts | $64k |
| Which parties will be in the next Israeli government? | Yashar | 77% | +28.0 pts | $63k |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? | Yes | 16% | −16.0 pts | $62k |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by … | June 30, 2027 | 56% | 0.0 pts | $47k |
| 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | Kuomintang (KMT) | 74% | −2.5 pts | $47k |
| Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by … | January 31, 2027 | 80% | +12.5 pts | $45k |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | Yes | 12% | 0.0 pts | $42k |
| Who will visit Ukraine by December 31? | Mark Rutte | 44% | −8.5 pts | $37k |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? | Yes | 22% | −1.0 pts | $34k |
| Will Russia capture Orikhiv by … | June 30, 2027 | 35% | −21.0 pts | $30k |
| Trump meets with Putin by … | December 31 | 87% | +3.5 pts | $27k |
| Next Israeli Minister of Defense? | No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 31% | −18.4 pts | $15k |
| Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by … | December 31 | 11% | −1.5 pts | $10k |
| How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? | 4 | 81% | +10.6 pts | $557 |