The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 97%, followed by November 15 at 96% and November 30 at 96%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 74% to 96% (+21.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 97% | +1.1 pts | +15.8 pts | $39k |
| November 15 | 96% | +4.0 pts | +8.5 pts | $7k |
| November 30 | 96% | +1.0 pts | +21.6 pts | $59k |
A price of 96% means traders pay $0.96 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| trx1 | December 31 · Yes | $9k | +$2k |
| Romkos7 | December 31 · Yes | $7k | +$404 |
| Outsmarter | December 31 · Yes | $7k | +$2k |
| GoldmanForts | November 30 · Yes | $6k | +$702 |
| mehanizator | November 30 · Yes | $5k | +$1k |
| nonkenny90 | December 31 · Yes | $4k | +$214 |
| mewmew1 | November 30 · Yes | $4k | +$107 |
| Warren-Buffett | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$1k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.