Nimb docs

Everything about reading prediction markets on Nimb and acting on what you read, from your first wallet to how we choose markets.

Getting started

Get started with NimbFive steps from zero to your first Polymarket order on Nimb: create a wallet, fund it, connect it, read the market, place a small order.How to create a crypto wallet for PolymarketSet up a self-custody wallet (MetaMask, Rabby, Coinbase Wallet or WalletConnect) to trade Polymarket markets from Nimb. Step by step, with safety checks.How to fund your wallet with USDC on PolygonHow to get USDC onto Polygon and into your Polymarket trading balance (pUSD): exchanges, bridges, minimums and gas. Checked against Polymarket docs.How to connect your wallet to NimbWhat happens when you press Connect wallet on Nimb: the signatures you approve, the Polymarket wallet that is set up, and what Nimb can and cannot do.Place your first orderA worked first order on Nimb: read the market, choose Yes or No, type an all-in amount, check break-even, sign. Example: $100 at 41% buys 242 shares.Who can trade from Nimb: restricted countriesWhere you can and cannot trade Polymarket from Nimb: restricted countries, France close-only, how the location check works, and what you can still read.

Prediction markets

What are prediction markets?A prediction market prices the chance of a future event: shares pay $1 if it happens and $0 if not. How they work, who trades, and what prices mean.Prediction markets as a news instrumentWhy prediction markets work as a real-time read on the news: prices update in seconds, carry money behind them, and show what changed and when.Polymarket odds explainedWhat Polymarket odds mean: a 41¢ price is a 41% chance. How to convert to decimal odds, why Yes and No add to about 100%, and what moves the price.How Polymarket markets resolveHow a Polymarket market ends: resolution rules, sources, the oracle and disputes, what happens after the deadline, and how to read the rules first.Are prediction markets accurate?What evidence says about prediction market accuracy, calibration and known biases (long-shot bias, thin markets), and how to judge one market.Polymarket vs KalshiPolymarket and Kalshi compared on regulation, who can use them, collateral, fees, market types and data. Facts dated, no affiliate links.

Reading a market

How to read a prediction marketMarket reading in six checks: chance, move, money, book, holders and rules. How to read any Polymarket market before you trade it, with Nimb.Spread and order book depthWhat spread and depth mean on Polymarket, how a 4-point spread or a thin book changes your fill price, and how Nimb shows liquidity.Volume and open interestVolume is money traded; open interest is money still at stake. How to read both, why sizes differ by timeframe, and which number Nimb uses.How to read a price chartRead a prediction market price chart: the dashed 50% line, steps vs trends, flat lines, news jumps and what a chart cannot show.Money flowMoney flow shows Yes buying minus No buying per hour. How to read it, when flow and price disagree, and why flow is not a forecast.Multi-outcome marketsHow to read Polymarket events with many outcomes: candidate lists, price ranges and date ladders, why chances sum to about 100%, and neg-risk.Before you trade: the checksThe Before you trade box on Nimb explained: unusual moves, thin books, concentrated holders, deadlines and break-even, with the rules behind each.

The map

How to read the Nimb mapHow Nimb draws Polymarket: filled circles sized by money traded, coloured by category, green and red wallet lines, dashed theme lines.The market panelWhat each part of Nimb's market panel shows: the reading, price chart, money flow, Before you trade, holders, and the order ticket beside it.Timeframes: 24H, 7D, 30DWhat changes when you switch Nimb between 24 hours, 7 days and 30 days: which markets appear, circle sizes, moves and the 30D-only links.CategoriesNimb's seven categories: Geopolitics, Politics, Finance, Crypto, AI & Tech, Sports, Climate & Culture. What goes where, colours and floors.Themes and factorsThemes group related Polymarket markets with dashed lines. What a theme is, how it is built, what it can and cannot tell you about shared risk.Moved together, moved oppositeHow Nimb flags markets that moved together or opposite over 30 days, the statistical thresholds used, and why most short-term links are noise.Top holders and wallet linesSee the largest public Polymarket holders: green lines hold Yes, red hold No. How to read whale positions, P&L and concentration without overreading.Net exposure and hedged positionsWhy Nimb nets out wallets that hold both Yes and No: a hedged $1 set is not a bet. Net exposure explained with a worked example.

Read and execute

Alpha in prediction marketsAlpha on Nimb means informational edge: what you know that the price does not yet show. Where it comes from, why most of it is noise, and its costs.Read and executeNimb's read-and-execute workflow: read the market in the analysis panel, check the costs, then act in the order ticket from your own wallet.The order ticketHow Nimb's order ticket works: side, all-in amount, shares, payout, break-even and every button state, with orders routed to Polymarket.Fees and all-in pricingWhat a Polymarket trade costs through Nimb: the platform taker fee, Nimb's 0.5% builder fee, spread, and how fees are folded into the amount shown.Selling and closing a positionHow to sell shares before a Polymarket market resolves, what you get back, how spread and fees apply, and what happens at resolution.PortfolioNimb's portfolio view: your positions as circles sized by value, entry vs mark, realised and unrealised P&L, and links to close or reread each market.Risks of prediction marketsThe real risks of Polymarket trading: losing your stake, thin books, rule disputes, smart-contract and wallet risk, legal limits. Read before trading.

Data & methodology

Data sources and freshnessWhere Nimb's numbers come from and how fresh they are: live prices via Polymarket's WebSocket, volumes every minute, markets every 6 hours.How Nimb chooses marketsThe score and gates that choose which Polymarket markets appear on Nimb: informative volume, depth, move, deadline, with formulas and thresholds.Known limitationsWhat Nimb's analytics get wrong or cannot yet do, with numbers from our own quant review: themes, correlations, holder signals, history.ChangelogDated list of changes to Nimb's map, data, methodology and docs, so you know which rules applied to the numbers you saw.

About Nimb

About NimbNimb, from the Latin nimbus: Roman augurs read the future in the sky; Nimb reads the crowd's forecast in the shape of the money. Who we are and why.Independence and how Nimb makes moneyNimb is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. How Nimb is funded (a 0.5% builder fee on orders), what that means, and what we never do.Our designWhy Nimb looks the way it does: Swiss grid, 80s–90s tech, filled circles only, size is money, green Yes, red No, dashed themes, plain voice.Frequently asked questionsShort answers to common questions about Nimb and Polymarket: what prices mean, wallets, fees, countries, data freshness, holders and risk.Prediction market glossaryPlain one-sentence definitions of prediction market and Polymarket terms: spread, depth, open interest, neg-risk, pUSD, builder fee, alpha and more.