As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 12% chance for “Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31”, unchanged from a week ago.
It moved +3.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 18% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | +3.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $42k |
A price of 12% means traders pay about $0.12 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pIebe | No | $22k | +$3k |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | No | $18k | +$3k |
| aannggg | No | $16k | +$2k |
| endlesssss | No | $11k | +$521 |
| DerDon | No | $9k | +$2k |
| marseillee | No | $8k | +$937 |
| Lord-Of-Democracy | No | $8k | −$129 |
| Odysseus7 | No | $6k | +$515 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.