The favourite on Polymarket is March 31 at 70%, followed by December 31 at 40% and November 30 at 20%.
November 15 moved the most this week: 22% to 6% (−16.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 70% | −1.5 pts | +5.5 pts | $90k |
| December 31 | 40% | −2.0 pts | −3.9 pts | $833k |
| November 30 | 20% | −2.5 pts | −12.5 pts | $889k |
| November 15 | 6% | −2.0 pts | −16.0 pts | $1.1M |
A price of 6% means traders pay $0.07 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcf19…6402 | December 31 · No | $67k | +$30k |
| tsybka | December 31 · Yes | $48k | −$25k |
| CARBEACH | November 30 · Yes | $42k | −$18k |
| Bertapotamous | December 31 · Yes | $27k | −$13k |
| Erasmus. | December 31 · Yes | $16k | −$9k |
| 0x35be…c77f | December 31 · No | $12k | +$8k |
| Treadmilled | December 31 · Yes | $12k | −$864 |
| carlos484 | November 30 · No | $11k | +$28k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.