The favourite on Polymarket is December 31, 2026 at 44%, followed by November 30, 2026 at 28%.
November 30, 2026 moved the most this week: 34% to 28% (−5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 44% | +0.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $337k |
| November 30, 2026 | 28% | +2.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $122k |
A price of 44% means traders pay $0.45 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| pugongying1 | November 30, 2026 · Yes | $8k | +$437 |
| 0x122cb94c437ea5e6f0 | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $6k | +$647 |
| MEPP | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | −$213 |
| RdogTest | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$2k |
| 881112 | November 30, 2026 · Yes | $4k | +$349 |
| 080526 | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$1k |
| 0x122cb94c437ea5e6f0 | November 30, 2026 · Yes | $4k | +$236 |
| GollumGekko | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$518 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.