The favourite on Polymarket is Marine Le Pen at 45%, followed by David Lisnard at 15% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 12%.
Marine Le Pen moved the most this week: 41% to 45% (+4.2 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 45% | +0.6 pts | +4.2 pts | $368k |
| David Lisnard | 15% | −0.2 pts | −3.4 pts | $841k |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12% | 0.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $540k |
| Christine Lagarde | 7% | +0.4 pts | +3.4 pts | $734k |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2% | −0.4 pts | +1.4 pts | $455k |
A price of 15% means traders pay $0.15 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Marine Le Pen · No | $698k | −$698k |
| BurstedBubble | Marine Le Pen · Yes | $289k | +$48k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | David Lisnard · No | $229k | −$229k |
| LlamaLoco0000 | Marine Le Pen · No | $228k | +$81k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon · No | $193k | −$193k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Christine Lagarde · No | $112k | −$112k |
| LlamaLoco0000 | David Lisnard · No | $76k | +$384k |
| lastminwin | Marine Le Pen · Yes | $64k | +$3k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.