As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 86% by 30 November and 87% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 84% to 87% (+3.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 86% | −0.5 pts | +3.0 pts | $8k |
| 31 December 2027 | 87% | 0.0 pts | +3.5 pts | $19k |
A price of 87% means traders pay about $0.87 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulgurator | December 31 · Yes | $11k | +$7k |
| 0x0456…c88a | December 31 · Yes | $11k | +$884 |
| 0x0456…c88a | November 30 · Yes | $8k | +$650 |
| balthazar | December 31 · Yes | $8k | +$1k |
| QuantDeLaFugazi | December 31 · Yes | $4k | +$2k |
| xiaojiren | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$305 |
| 0x45a2…3c01 | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$2 |
| xiaojiren | November 30 · Yes | $3k | +$156 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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