The favourite on Polymarket is March 31 at 20%, followed by January 31 at 18% and December 31 at 14%.
March 31 moved the most this week: 71% to 20% (−51.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 20% | −2.0 pts | −51.0 pts | $46k |
| January 31 | 18% | −0.5 pts | −47.0 pts | $121k |
| December 31 | 14% | −2.5 pts | −44.5 pts | $64k |
| November 30 | 12% | −1.0 pts | −42.0 pts | $90k |
| November 15 | 5% | −2.5 pts | −30.0 pts | $55k |
A price of 18% means traders pay $0.17 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1nvoker1 | March 31 · No | $1k | +$2k |
| 1nvoker1 | December 31 · No | $1k | +$3k |
| 1nvoker1 | January 31 · No | $963 | +$2k |
| Contestable-Parfait | November 30 · No | $795 | +$5k |
| Archeroon | November 15 · Yes | $754 | −$2k |
| anoin123 | November 30 · No | $714 | +$5k |
| anoin123 | November 15 · No | $625 | +$11k |
| wallet-account-test | November 30 · No | $318 | +$817 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.