As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 8% chance for “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027”, down from 10% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 10% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 0.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $74k |
A price of 8% means traders pay about $0.08 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| winforretire | No | $229k | +$14k |
| bysittingnottrading | No | $216k | +$9k |
| NeH | No | $121k | +$4k |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5M | No | $42k | +$4k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $28k | +$182 |
| Nadmi | No | $18k | +$7k |
| comon119 | Yes | $17k | −$12k |
| 0x6794…ec48 | No | $17k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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