As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 1% by 30 November, 2% by 31 December, 22% by 30 June 2027 and 38% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 March 2027 line moved the most this week: 12% to 5% (−6.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 1% | 0.0 pts | −0.6 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2026 | 2% | −0.2 pts | −1.2 pts | $48k |
| 31 March 2027 | 5% | −0.2 pts | −6.1 pts | $15k |
| 30 June 2027 | 22% | 0.0 pts | −2.5 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 38% | 0.0 pts | −0.5 pts | $2k |
A price of 38% means traders pay about $0.38 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| aff3 | December 31, 2026 · No | $274k | +$38k |
| GoriIIa | December 31, 2026 · No | $260k | +$36k |
| thoodr | December 31, 2026 · No | $55k | +$6k |
| gorovi | December 31, 2026 · No | $23k | +$2k |
| gorovi | March 31, 2027 · No | $19k | +$1k |
| 18in36out | December 31, 2026 · No | $18k | +$314 |
| 0xcf19…6402 | December 31, 2026 · No | $18k | +$4k |
| 18in36out | November 30, 2026 · No | $14k | +$200 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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