The deadline passed on 4 November 2026. The market is waiting for the official result, so prices may still move before it settles. How markets resolve.
As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 1% chance for “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026”, down from 24% a week ago.
It moved +0.6 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 30% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | +0.6 pts | −22.5 pts | $596k |
A price of 1% means traders pay about $0.01 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| dromedaryy | No | $141k | +$29 |
| wan123 | No | $132k | +$48k |
| cambridgeisaac | No | $60k | +$11k |
| 99problems123 | No | $56k | +$21k |
| jaja5050 | No | $43k | +$19k |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | $38k | +$13k |
| dwarf123 | No | $30k | +$7k |
| Polyticks | No | $30k | +$14k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.