Traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026”, down 4.1 points over the past week.
Over the past week the chance moved from 8% to 3% (−4.1 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | −2.1 pts | −4.1 pts | $88k |
A price of 3% means traders pay $0.03 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ElZorro69 | No | $4k | +$90k |
| AiBird | Yes | $2k | −$2k |
| GoriIIa | No | $278 | +$7k |
| 18in36out | No | $276 | +$8k |
| ttttr324 | No | $141 | +$4k |
| Max3 | No | $123 | +$3k |
| TradeDoggo-Elite | No | $42 | +$1k |
| pIebe | No | $37 | +$955 |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.