As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is Mojtaba Khamenei at 94%, followed by No Head of State at 2% and Alireza Arafi at 2%.
Mojtaba Khamenei moved the most this week: 86% to 94% (+7.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 94% | +3.0 pts | +7.8 pts | $146k |
| No Head of State | 2% | −2.0 pts | −2.7 pts | $15k |
| Alireza Arafi | 2% | −0.4 pts | −1.8 pts | $12k |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for a “Mojtaba Khamenei” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| StudentMoney | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $94k | +$29k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Alireza Arafi · No | $64k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No Head of State · No | $64k | – |
| MEPP | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $45k | +$8k |
| GoriIIa | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $33k | +$4k |
| 0xbe48…683f | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $23k | +$3k |
| aff3 | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $23k | +$2k |
| thoodr | Mojtaba Khamenei · Yes | $22k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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