As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 4 at 81%, followed by 5 at 11% and 6 at 3%.
4 moved the most this week: 71% to 81% (+10.6 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 81% | +2.0 pts | +10.6 pts | $557 |
| 5 | 11% | −0.1 pts | −2.6 pts | $0 |
| 6 | 3% | 0.0 pts | −0.2 pts | $0 |
| 7 | 1% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $0 |
A price of 81% means traders pay about $0.81 for a “4” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 7 · No | $18k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 6 · No | $17k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 5 · No | $16k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 4 · No | $3k | – |
| buoys | 4 · Yes | $3k | +$1k |
| marseillee | 4 · Yes | $3k | +$313 |
| paddaa | 4 · Yes | $2k | +$1k |
| FlashTradeOracle | 4 · Yes | $814 | +$644 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.