As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026”, down from 8% a week ago.
It moved −0.7 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.7 pts | −4.2 pts | $98k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| timmythewhale | No | $37k | +$1k |
| thoodr | No | $17k | +$415 |
| SwissMiss | No | $16k | +$6k |
| 0xc3db…0f98 | No | $16k | +$5k |
| SirHarryOakes | No | $9k | +$1k |
| justme003 | No | $4k | +$574 |
| eCash | No | $4k | +$153 |
| Giannis2026 | No | $3k | +$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.