The favourite on Polymarket is December 31 at 31%, followed by November 30 at 19%.
November 30 moved the most this week: 27% to 19% (−8.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 31% | +3.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $209k |
| November 30 | 19% | +1.5 pts | −8.0 pts | $249k |
A price of 19% means traders pay $0.19 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valen9 | December 31 · No | $12k | +$14k |
| carlos484 | December 31 · No | $11k | +$16k |
| carlos484 | November 30 · No | $10k | +$35k |
| DonJoey1 | December 31 · Yes | $6k | +$244 |
| 0x4135…e462 | December 31 · Yes | $5k | −$269 |
| Raskell | December 31 · No | $5k | +$6k |
| paddaa | December 31 · Yes | $4k | +$372 |
| GollumGekko | December 31 · No | $3k | +$3k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.