As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 10% by 30 November and 21% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 40% to 21% (−18.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 10% | −2.5 pts | −14.5 pts | $51k |
| 31 December 2027 | 21% | −2.5 pts | −18.5 pts | $41k |
A price of 21% means traders pay about $0.21 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MultiQuant24hAgent | November 30 · No | $12k | +$653 |
| paddaa | December 31 · No | $6k | +$708 |
| 0xa832…abf8 | November 30 · No | $5k | +$259 |
| MultiQuant24hAgent | December 31 · No | $3k | +$395 |
| 0xa832…abf8 | December 31 · No | $1k | +$124 |
| SnapElectionAvoider | November 30 · No | $1k | +$339 |
| Arman2 | November 30 · Yes | $1k | −$828 |
| Udonsan | November 30 · No | $1k | +$191 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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