As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 24% by 8 November, 40% by 15 November, 64% by 30 November and 80% by 31 December.
The 8 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 34% to 24% (−9.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 November 2026 | 24% | −9.5 pts | −9.5 pts | $37k |
| 15 November 2026 | 40% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $26k |
| 22 November 2026 | 56% | +2.5 pts | +2.5 pts | $20k |
| 30 November 2026 | 64% | −6.5 pts | −6.5 pts | $20k |
| 31 December 2026 | 80% | +3.0 pts | +3.0 pts | $27k |
A price of 80% means traders pay about $0.80 for the 31 December 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Car | November 22 · Yes | $6k | +$429 |
| rainbowlilies | December 31 · Yes | $6k | −$161 |
| pIebe | November 22 · No | $3k | −$251 |
| 0xecb1…f1c4 | November 30 · Yes | $3k | −$1 |
| pIebe | November 15 · No | $3k | +$3 |
| notimeforcaution | November 8 · Yes | $3k | +$93 |
| neutralwave23 | November 8 · No | $2k | −$286 |
| Car | November 15 · Yes | $2k | +$27 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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