As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “ Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31”, down from 7% a week ago.
It moved −3.1 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 10% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −3.1 pts | −3.1 pts | $124k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| zb8 | No | $81k | +$12k |
| scottilicious | No | $40k | +$896 |
| Folletin | No | $19k | +$4k |
| nedsta | No | $16k | +$3k |
| hopedieslast | No | $15k | +$2k |
| RememberAmalek | No | $13k | +$7k |
| Trump2028 | No | $11k | +$1k |
| Valen9 | No | $5k | +$350 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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