Buying No on Polymarket means buying a share that pays $1 if the outcome does not happen; at a Yes price of 41%, No costs about 59¢, and it is economically the same as selling Yes at 41%. Choose Yes or No by which side's all-in price is further from your own estimate of the chance, not by which outcome you prefer. On Nimb's ticket, the Yes/No toggle shows both live prices and the break-even for each.
Should I buy Yes or No?
| Your estimate | Yes at 41% | No at 59% |
|---|---|---|
| Real chance 30% | Overpriced | Underpriced: No is worth 70% |
| Real chance 41–42% | About fair after fees | About fair after fees |
| Real chance 55% | Underpriced | Overpriced |
Fees are symmetric around 50%: Polymarket's taker fee per share is rate × p × (1 − p), so a share at 41% and a share at 59% pay the same dollar fee. The spread matters: the No ask and the Yes bid are the same order book seen from two sides. Spread and depth.
When is buying No useful?
- Long shots. Older research finds long shots tend to be overpriced (Nimb's 2026 check did not); No on a 5% outcome costs 95¢ to make 5¢, a small, frequent gain with a rare full loss. Favourite–long-shot bias.
- Multi-outcome events. No on one candidate you think is overpriced can be cleaner than buying Yes on all the others. In neg-risk events No shares can also be converted into Yes shares on the other outcomes. Multi-outcome markets.
- Deadlines. "Will X happen by 31 December?" decays towards No as time passes without news; No holders are paid for time, Yes holders for events.
Frequently asked questions
What happens if I buy No and it resolves No?
Each No share pays $1. At 59¢, $100 buys about 169 shares before fees and pays about $169.
Can I lose more than I paid by buying No?
No. The most you lose is the price you paid, plus fees.
Is buying No the same as shorting?
Economically, yes: buying No at 59% is selling Yes at 41%.
Last reviewed 8 November 2026 · Data from Polymarket · Not financial advice · Nimb is not affiliated with Polymarket.