Prediction markets are legal in some places and not in others: in the United States, exchanges regulated by the CFTC (such as Kalshi and Polymarket US) list event contracts nationally, but several states dispute contracts on sport and the courts are split; in the UK, France, Germany and many other countries, Polymarket's international platform does not allow new positions at all. This page sets out the main rules as of 8 November 2026; it is not legal advice, and the law where you live decides. Nimb checks Polymarket's location rules before every order.
Are prediction markets legal in the US?
- Federal law. Event contracts are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under the Commodity Exchange Act. Exchanges designated by the CFTC, including Kalshi and Polymarket US, may list them. The CFTC can bar contracts on terrorism, assassination, war, gaming and unlawful activity if it finds them contrary to the public interest (CFTC: Commodity Exchange Act).
- Election contracts. In 2024 a federal court ruled against the CFTC's attempt to block Kalshi's congressional control contracts, and the CFTC later dropped its appeal; election markets are now listed by regulated US exchanges.
- Sport and the states. Several states say sports event contracts are unlicensed gambling. In 2026 the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi against New Jersey, while the Sixth Circuit (Ohio, Tennessee) and the Ninth Circuit (Nevada) allowed states to enforce their gambling laws; the CFTC has itself sued some states. The question may reach the Supreme Court.
- Polymarket. The international platform blocks US users from opening positions since the 2022 CFTC settlement (CFTC 8478-22). Polymarket US is separate. Is Polymarket legal in the US?
Are prediction markets legal in the UK and Europe?
| Place | Polymarket international | General picture |
|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Close-only | Betting is licensed by the Gambling Commission; betting exchanges are licensed |
| France | Close-only | The gambling regulator (ANJ) has treated Polymarket as an unlicensed operator |
| Germany, Italy, Belgium, Poland | Close-only | Gambling and financial rules restrict unlicensed offers |
| Ireland, Netherlands | Close-only on the website | Check the national regulator |
| Other EU countries | Often open | No EU-wide rule; national law applies; MiCA covers crypto-asset services, not the contracts |
Polymarket's list, as checked on 8 November 2026, is in who can trade from Nimb.
Is it legal to use a VPN?
Using a VPN to get round a location block breaks Polymarket's terms, can lead to frozen access and may break local law. Nimb does not help with it and refuses orders from close-only locations.
What decides whether a market is legal?
- Where you are, not where the platform is.
- What the contract is on: sport, elections and war are treated differently.
- Whether the venue is licensed for you: a regulated exchange, a gambling licence, or neither.
- Whether you can open positions or only close them.
Frequently asked questions
Is Polymarket legal?
It depends on your country. Its international platform is closed to new positions in the US, UK, France and about 35 other countries; Polymarket US is a CFTC-regulated exchange for US users.
Is Kalshi legal?
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange. Some states contest its sports contracts in court.
Are prediction markets regulated by the CFTC?
In the US, yes, when they run on CFTC-designated exchanges. The CFTC has also brought enforcement actions against unregistered venues and against insider trading on event contracts.
Which US states ban prediction markets on sport?
The list changes with each court ruling. Check your state's gaming regulator and the venue's own state list before trading.
Last reviewed 8 November 2026 · Data from Polymarket · Not financial advice · Nimb is not affiliated with Polymarket.