As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 97% by 8 November, 98% by 9 November, 79% by 15 November and 76% by 19 November.
The 9 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 50% to 98% (+48.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 November 2026 | 97% | +1.4 pts | +47.2 pts | $4k |
| 9 November 2026 | 98% | +24.5 pts | +48.0 pts | $803 |
| 10 November 2026 | 96% | +17.9 pts | +46.4 pts | $127 |
| 15 November 2026 | 79% | +1.0 pts | +29.0 pts | $72 |
| 19 November 2026 | 76% | +1.5 pts | +26.0 pts | $70 |
A price of 98% means traders pay about $0.98 for the 9 November 2026 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.