As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo”, up from 2% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.1 pts | +1.7 pts | $9k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| dwFqcd4Z | No | $78k | +$16k |
| How.Dare.You | No | $18k | +$4k |
| 0xa9f3…4bce | No | $16k | +$1k |
| Go3ami2g | No | $10k | +$2k |
| Derbob | No | $7k | +$1k |
| 33923189 | No | $6k | +$821 |
| fastviking | No | $6k | +$825 |
| 0x1104…7bab | No | $6k | +$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.