As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 1% chance for “Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027”, down from 2% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 0.0 pts | −0.6 pts | $6k |
A price of 1% means traders pay about $0.01 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan777 | No | $74k | +$7k |
| mr-green-tea | No | $52k | +$5k |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | $11k | +$1k |
| kevinlim883 | No | $11k | +$1k |
| bearbees2 | No | $6k | +$159 |
| 57284910 | No | $5k | +$93 |
| delphy | No | $4k | +$275 |
| 0x8931…a90c | No | $4k | +$97 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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