As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 2% by 31 December, 6% by 31 March 2027 and 9% by 30 June 2027.
No outcome moved more than 2 points over the past week.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 2% | 0.0 pts | +0.2 pts | $846k |
| 31 March 2027 | 6% | −0.5 pts | −0.5 pts | $3k |
| 30 June 2027 | 9% | −0.5 pts | −0.5 pts | $61k |
A price of 9% means traders pay about $0.09 for the 30 June 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ReedUpdatee | December 31, 2026 · No | $1.2M | +$94k |
| onekey02 | December 31, 2026 · No | $1.0M | +$83k |
| ololololololololo | December 31, 2026 · No | $434k | +$52k |
| ThisAgain | December 31, 2026 · No | $380k | +$44k |
| Clicker1 | December 31, 2026 · No | $299k | +$28k |
| BigBusinessPro | December 31, 2026 · No | $268k | +$35k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | December 31, 2026 · No | $187k | +$17k |
| SecondWindCapital | December 31, 2026 · No | $156k | +$16k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.