As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 4% by 31 December, 14% by 30 June 2027 and 26% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2027 line moved the most this week: 30% to 26% (−5.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 4% | 0.0 pts | −1.6 pts | $8k |
| 30 June 2027 | 14% | 0.0 pts | −3.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 26% | −0.5 pts | −5.0 pts | $61 |
A price of 26% means traders pay about $0.26 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| cqs | December 31, 2026 · No | $83k | +$31k |
| KrackenSruster | December 31, 2026 · No | $35k | +$8k |
| sheisgorgeous | December 31, 2026 · No | $16k | +$174 |
| leqso0410 | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$263 |
| justme003 | December 31, 2026 · No | $7k | +$753 |
| CompulsiveGambler | December 31, 2026 · No | $6k | +$455 |
| How.Dare.You | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$382 |
| fastviking | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$584 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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