As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026”, down from 4% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.4 pts | −2.2 pts | $32k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr | No | $69k | +$3k |
| Erasmus. | No | $27k | +$4k |
| trumpishonest | No | $25k | +$2k |
| ddurrrrrr | No | $22k | +$1k |
| ANGGGuess | No | $17k | +$2k |
| Kevindoto | No | $17k | +$3k |
| jackchen-cs | No | $15k | +$2k |
| Anjun | No | $13k | +$1k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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