As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 12% chance for “US strike on Cuba by December 31”, up from 8% a week ago.
It moved +1.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 12% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | +1.0 pts | +3.0 pts | $26k |
A price of 12% means traders pay about $0.12 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan777 | No | $60k | +$15k |
| Anjun | No | $29k | +$8k |
| apmt | No | $19k | +$5k |
| Kevindoto | No | $18k | +$7k |
| alwaysOn | No | $14k | −$135 |
| dfdvbjgdhbh | No | $14k | +$4k |
| skibabiba | No | $13k | +$2k |
| zthunderfury | No | $11k | +$61 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.