As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 14% chance for “US strike on Colombia by December 31”, down from 20% a week ago.
It moved −2.0 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 26% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | −2.0 pts | −6.0 pts | $41k |
A price of 14% means traders pay about $0.14 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheEmprah | No | $25k | +$989 |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | $10k | +$1k |
| placerv2 | No | $6k | +$362 |
| Doppelpack | No | $6k | +$296 |
| dfdvbjgdhbh | No | $3k | +$478 |
| congoterrier | Yes | $2k | +$157 |
| 0x2d5b…7744 | No | $2k | +$253 |
| tetrose | Yes | $2k | −$569 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.