As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027”, down from 3% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 3% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | −0.2 pts | −0.6 pts | $2.1M |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa2cd…2ba0 | No | $2.4M | +$147k |
| world-changer | No | $897k | +$47k |
| elmcap2 | No | $538k | +$10k |
| SecondWindCapital | No | $440k | +$73k |
| charliealmanack | No | $237k | +$20k |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | $235k | +$19k |
| Gracious-Hugger | No | $233k | +$33k |
| Avamax | No | $230k | +$9k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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