The favourite on Polymarket is JD Vance at 19%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 18% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12%.
Jon Ossoff moved the most this week: 10% to 18% (+8.4 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 19% | −1.8 pts | +0.2 pts | $783k |
| Jon Ossoff | 18% | −3.2 pts | +8.4 pts | $674k |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 12% | 0.0 pts | −0.4 pts | $337k |
| Marco Rubio | 9% | +0.2 pts | −0.2 pts | $259k |
| James Talarico | 2% | +0.2 pts | −0.2 pts | $657k |
A price of 19% means traders pay $0.19 for a share that pays $1 if the outcome happens. It is the crowd's estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and open interest, explained · How markets resolve
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | JD Vance · No | $534k | −$534k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Jon Ossoff · No | $518k | −$518k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · No | $346k | −$346k |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | Marco Rubio · No | $268k | −$268k |
| 98better | JD Vance · Yes | $167k | −$12k |
| woshiLimpeh | JD Vance · Yes | $88k | −$11k |
| HerbertAppreciator | Jon Ossoff · Yes | $55k | +$48k |
| machbut | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Yes | $53k | −$2k |
Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. How to read holders.