As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 42% by 30 November and 51% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 18% to 42% (+24.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 42% | 0.0 pts | +24.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 51% | −3.0 pts | −3.5 pts | $0 |
A price of 51% means traders pay about $0.51 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.