As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 7% by 30 November, 52% by 31 March 2027 and 14% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 March 2027 line moved the most this week: 64% to 52% (−13.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 7% | −0.4 pts | −3.4 pts | $0 |
| 31 March 2027 | 52% | −0.5 pts | −13.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 December 2027 | 14% | +1.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $4k |
A price of 52% means traders pay about $0.52 for the 31 March 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| anotherpatrick | December 31 · No | $4k | +$1k |
| anotherpatrick | March 31, 2027 · No | $3k | +$1k |
| NiceDuckBro | December 31 · No | $3k | +$336 |
| JoeBlack01 | December 31 · No | $2k | +$947 |
| elPolloLoco | March 31, 2027 · Yes | $2k | −$440 |
| NiceDuckBro | March 31, 2027 · Yes | $2k | −$597 |
| bifurcatio | November 30 · No | $1k | +$21 |
| controls | March 31, 2027 · Yes | $738 | −$26 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.