As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 38% chance for “Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31”, up from 22% a week ago.
It moved −3.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 20% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38% | −3.5 pts | +16.0 pts | $17k |
A price of 38% means traders pay about $0.38 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| DumplingBMF | Yes | $5k | −$726 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | $3k | −$278 |
| Voland6777 | No | $3k | −$862 |
| Gladius7 | No | $2k | −$369 |
| Suprasapiens | Yes | $1k | +$289 |
| 0x1156…5eb4 | No | $1k | −$278 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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