As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026”, unchanged from a week ago.
It moved −0.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
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| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.5 pts | −0.2 pts | $11k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| DenisDumov | No | $33k | +$15k |
| 0x7402…4047 | No | $12k | +$6k |
| itsfomo | No | $3k | +$107 |
| GaioMario | No | $3k | +$2k |
| DEGENKHAN | No | $2k | +$28 |
| icantakemore | No | $2k | −$4 |
| vovatoxic | No | $2k | +$953 |
| DumbOracle | No | $2k | +$55 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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