As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 4% by 30 November, 39% by 31 March 2027 and 14% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 March 2027 line moved the most this week: 48% to 39% (−8.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 4% | −0.3 pts | −5.2 pts | $0 |
| 31 March 2027 | 39% | +1.0 pts | −8.5 pts | $3k |
| 31 December 2027 | 14% | +1.5 pts | −6.5 pts | $3k |
A price of 39% means traders pay about $0.39 for the 31 March 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| KrackenSruster | December 31 · No | $7k | +$553 |
| CompulsiveGambler | December 31 · No | $6k | +$418 |
| GaioMario | December 31 · No | $6k | +$412 |
| Gladius7 | December 31 · No | $5k | +$159 |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov | December 31 · No | $2k | +$181 |
| flexibleagedbeef | December 31 · No | $2k | +$46 |
| anotherpatrick | March 31, 2027 · No | $2k | +$367 |
| GaioMario | March 31, 2027 · No | $2k | +$117 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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