As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 48% chance for “Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31”, up from 36% a week ago.
It moved −14.5 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 38% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 48% | −14.5 pts | +12.5 pts | $9k |
A price of 48% means traders pay about $0.48 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gladius7 | No | $6k | −$2k |
| DumplingBMF | Yes | $3k | −$28 |
| Rybkaoi | Yes | $3k | +$1k |
| lionkinglionkinglionking | No | $2k | +$807 |
| flexibleagedbeef | No | $1k | −$338 |
| PeterEriksson | Yes | $925 | +$155 |
| bak.ne.kici | Yes | $902 | +$166 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | $851 | +$337 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.