As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 40% by 30 November and 70% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 November 2026 line moved the most this week: 51% to 40% (−10.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 November 2026 | 40% | +2.5 pts | −10.5 pts | $3k |
| 31 December 2027 | 70% | −2.0 pts | −7.0 pts | $4k |
A price of 70% means traders pay about $0.70 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rybkaoi | December 31 · Yes | $6k | +$272 |
| mehanizator | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$265 |
| PeterEriksson | December 31 · Yes | $3k | +$492 |
| DumplingBMF | December 31 · Yes | $2k | +$331 |
| flexibleagedbeef | December 31 · No | $1k | −$346 |
| nero2589 | December 31 · Yes | $1k | +$136 |
| NiceDuckBro | December 31 · No | $915 | −$44 |
| leCommissaire | December 31 · No | $657 | −$190 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.