As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026”, down from 6% a week ago.
It moved −0.6 pts in the past 24 hours, and stood at 10% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | −0.6 pts | −2.8 pts | $15k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ourdemocracy | No | $5k | +$569 |
| ReedUpdatee | No | $2k | +$632 |
| NeH | No | $2k | +$406 |
| 0x8f69…2923 | No | $1k | +$465 |
| Appppping | No | $1k | +$88 |
| kukubaja | No | $1k | +$341 |
| SomerandomD | No | $1k | +$95 |
| XAE12Archangel | No | $1k | +$200 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.