As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is UAE at 97%, followed by No Talks by December 31, 2027 at 2%.
UAE moved the most this week: 70% to 97% (+27.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE | 97% | +0.8 pts | +27.5 pts | $44k |
| No Talks by December 31, 2027 | 2% | −0.4 pts | −7.6 pts | $17k |
A price of 97% means traders pay about $0.97 for a “UAE” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | No Talks by December 31, 2027 · No | $9k | – |
| Dafri220286 | UAE · Yes | $5k | +$143 |
| smellyEllie | No Talks by December 31, 2027 · No | $3k | +$255 |
| Outsmarter | UAE · Yes | $2k | +$336 |
| mewmew1 | UAE · Yes | $2k | +$106 |
| Cattail | UAE · Yes | $2k | +$145 |
| Michael-The-Taxiarch | No Talks by December 31, 2027 · No | $2k | +$52 |
| trx1 | UAE · Yes | $2k | +$428 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.