As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 8% by 31 December and 39% by 31 March 2027.
The 31 March 2027 line moved the most this week: 33% to 39% (+6.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 8% | 0.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $0 |
| 31 March 2027 | 39% | −2.5 pts | +6.0 pts | $2k |
A price of 39% means traders pay about $0.39 for the 31 March 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31, 2026 · No | $22k | +$7k |
| nedsta | December 31, 2026 · No | $5k | +$208 |
| stupid22 | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$60 |
| betwick | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $4k | −$19k |
| pIebe | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$199 |
| wan123 | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$716 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$126 |
| unsc | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$974 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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