As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 16% chance for “US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026”, up from 16% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 16% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16% | 0.0 pts | +1.0 pts | $1k |
A price of 16% means traders pay about $0.16 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wickier | No | $2k | +$179 |
| ifyouloveme | No | $1k | +$936 |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | $741 | −$13 |
| melonmanm | No | $657 | +$52 |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | $531 | +$42 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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