As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 8% by 31 December, 25% by 30 June 2027 and 34% by 31 December 2027.
The 30 June 2027 line moved the most this week: 50% to 25% (−25.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 8% | 0.0 pts | 0.0 pts | $47k |
| 30 June 2027 | 25% | 0.0 pts | −25.0 pts | $109 |
| 31 December 2027 | 34% | −3.0 pts | −16.5 pts | $291 |
A price of 34% means traders pay about $0.34 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| NeH | December 31, 2026 · No | $47k | +$11k |
| zve3da | December 31, 2026 · No | $20k | +$1k |
| aannggg | December 31, 2026 · No | $15k | +$823 |
| KrackenSruster | December 31, 2026 · No | $10k | +$3k |
| Specksalam | December 31, 2026 · No | $9k | +$95 |
| How.Dare.You | December 31, 2026 · No | $9k | +$2k |
| vladius3 | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$1k |
| LPTT | December 31, 2026 · No | $8k | +$2k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.