As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 3% chance for “Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31”, down from 18% a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 22% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | +0.3 pts | −15.7 pts | $325k |
A price of 3% means traders pay about $0.03 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astera | No | $57k | +$925 |
| JSG3 | No | $17k | +$3k |
| dwFqcd4Z | No | $12k | +$2k |
| aviato | No | $11k | +$373 |
| Kevindoto | No | $6k | −$19 |
| Canaldi | No | $5k | +$429 |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | $4k | +$613 |
| agagyu | No | $3k | +$535 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.