As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see 3% by 31 December and 21% by 31 December 2027.
The 31 December 2026 line moved the most this week: 6% to 3% (−2.8 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2026 | 3% | −1.3 pts | −2.8 pts | $7k |
| 31 December 2027 | 21% | 0.0 pts | +0.5 pts | $45 |
A price of 21% means traders pay about $0.21 for the 31 December 2027 share, which pays $1 if it happens by then. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb. Each line is a separate yes-or-no market, so the chances do not add up to 100%.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr | December 31, 2026 · No | $59k | +$4k |
| Mwhale | December 31, 2026 · No | $12k | +$837 |
| NoIdea666 | December 31, 2026 · No | $6k | +$498 |
| MEPP | December 31, 2026 · No | $4k | +$263 |
| yomayo | December 31, 2026 · No | $3k | +$163 |
| Mwhale | December 31, 2027 · No | $3k | +$33 |
| GTOrski1 | December 31, 2026 · No | $2k | +$215 |
| tetrose | December 31, 2026 · Yes | $2k | −$6k |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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