As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 2% chance for “New pandemic in 2026”, unchanged from a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 4% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 0.0 pts | +0.1 pts | $12k |
A price of 2% means traders pay about $0.02 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| enrico-vasaio | No | $24k | +$2k |
| ktv.bond | No | $17k | +$864 |
| estuprador | No | $15k | +$381 |
| SomerandomD | No | $11k | +$383 |
| QMG-SCALAR | No | $10k | +$428 |
| xcnstrategy | No | $9k | +$1k |
| QMG-CORE | No | $8k | +$522 |
| debased | No | $8k | +$819 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Geopolitics · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.