As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 14°C at 94%, followed by 15°C at 5% and 16°C at 1%.
14°C moved the most this week: 20% to 94% (+73.0 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14°C | 94% | +54.0 pts | +73.0 pts | $11k |
| 15°C | 5% | −3.1 pts | −2.6 pts | $11k |
| 16°C | 1% | −0.9 pts | −8.1 pts | $10k |
A price of 94% means traders pay about $0.94 for a “14°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 16°C · No | $2k | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 15°C · No | $1k | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.