As of 8 November 2026, the favourite on Polymarket is 10°C at 36%, followed by 9°C at 28% and 11°C at 22%.
9°C moved the most this week: 11% to 28% (+16.5 pts).
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10°C | 36% | +6.5 pts | 0.0 pts | $3k |
| 9°C | 28% | +8.5 pts | +16.5 pts | $1k |
| 11°C | 22% | −3.0 pts | −7.5 pts | $4k |
| 8°C | 12% | +6.8 pts | +10.0 pts | $7k |
| 7°C | 1% | −0.4 pts | −8.3 pts | $50k |
A price of 36% means traders pay about $0.36 for a “10°C” share, which pays $1 if that line resolves Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xb374…b227 | 7°C · No | $42k | +$227 |
| 0xb374…b227 | 8°C · No | $3k | −$319 |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 7°C · No | $791 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 8°C · No | $704 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 11°C · No | $628 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 9°C · No | $580 | – |
| 0xa5ef…2966 | 10°C · No | $512 | – |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
More in Climate & Culture · All markets
Prediction markets are risky and you can lose your whole stake. Risk disclosure.