As of 8 November 2026, traders on Polymarket see a 4% chance for “NATO article 5 before 2027”, unchanged from a week ago.
It barely moved in the past 24 hours, and stood at 6% 30 days ago.
New to this? How to read a market · What the odds mean
| Outcome | Chance | 24 hours | 7 days | Traded, 7 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 0.0 pts | −0.4 pts | $3k |
A price of 4% means traders pay about $0.04 for a Yes share, which pays $1 if the answer is Yes. It is the crowd’s estimate, not a forecast by Nimb.
Volume and liquidity, explained · How markets resolve · Fees
| Wallet | Holds | Value | Unrealised P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam7 | No | $57k | +$657 |
| gorovi | No | $30k | +$2k |
| NeH | No | $23k | +$2k |
| Trashbag | No | $12k | +$345 |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5M | No | $12k | +$742 |
| Aq4ExePrd22Jn | No | $8k | +$393 |
| forever123 | No | $2k | +$29 |
| vsesoso | Yes | $2k | −$951 |
Value is shares × the current price of the side held. Wallets holding both sides of the same market are left out: their positions cancel and are not a bet. A dash means the cost basis is unknown. Holders are public data; this is not a signal to copy. How to read holders.
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